Friday, January 30, 2009

CHAPTER 263: Predicting UFC 94

“ I will fight the best BJ Penn ever… but there is one thing, I’m the best Georges St-Pierre that I’ve ever been
and the best Georges St-Pierre is better then the best BJ Penn. ”
- Georges St-Pierre
“ I wanna kill his spirit I wanna make sure his spirit is done after this.
I wanna take all his strength from him and have them be mine. ”
– BJ Penn


~ UFC 94 Trailer ~



***************************************************

Nate Diaz vs. Clay Guida
Nate Diaz has the BJJ and am sure capable of pulling out slick submissions. He’s also going to have the height and reach advantage over Guida so in that aspect I’m sure he’ll use boxing to not let Guida close in during the fight. Should both fighters get engaged in the clinch, then it’s inevitable that one of them will force the other into a takedown onto the ground, and from there I believe that Diaz would work on a submission. I also think that a fight plan from Nate Diaz is to end the fight as early as possible.
Clay Guida has the wrestling edge and perhaps cardio, and I think that his game plan for this fight is that he has to be relentless and frustrate Diaz throughout each rounds.

I think how the fight would go is that the first round would be a tentative fight between both fighters, with plenty of Lay N’ Pray and the occasional punching-boxing exchanges on the standup. I think the second round would be more explosive and more clinching that’s going to end up on the ground, in which I think it’s prime for Diaz to win by submission.
I’m picking Nate Diaz to win by a triangle in the second round.

My Predicted Victor: Nate Diaz

***************************************************

Karo Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun Kim
The interesting factor in this fight is that both fighters have Judo background. How the fight goes, I predict there’s going to be plenty of clinch, takedowns and fighting from the clinch and guard position (with either fighters vying for the more dominant position when they’re on the ground). There would be the occasional boxing exchanges when they standing up. I think this fight would surely be less of a stand up war. I think this fight will start more on striking battle that’ll end up as more of a grappling duel between the two fighters.
One factor that is probably need to be taken into consideration in this fight is Parisyan’s mental issues, whether he’s up for it, seeing as that from before he had his previous panic attacks and what not.

As for the outcome, I’m picking Kim to win by decision.

My Predicted Victor: Dong Hyun Kim.

***************************************************

Stephan Bonnar vs. Jon Jones
Bonnar has not fought for a long time, and there’s the Octagon rust factor going into this fight from him. Nevertheless, he’s the more experienced fighter and has the better BJJ than his rival I suppose.
With Jon Jones, we have a very young fighter, having Greco –Roman wrestling among his base so that would counter up against Bonnar’s BJJ skills. Also, his last fight went to a decision win.
I can’t really see how the fight will turn out like, but I predict that Bonnar would win this fight but in a close duel, in which he would get a submission late in either the second or third round.

My Predicted Victor: Stephan Bonnar

***************************************************

Lyoto Machida vs. Thiago Silva
Besides (and just under a notch of hype below) the main event, really looking forward to this one!
Both are undefeated with 13-0 going on, man, one will end up having that first botch and the other with an impressive 14-0 record (unless the fight ends as a draw which I don’t believe is likely).

I got to say, I’m leaning towards Thiago Silva, but it’s more on heart ‘cause out of the two fighters I prefer his style of fighting (and he’s finish a lot of fights under the first round), but if we make a productive argument than Machida would be the one to win based on logic, as he’s faced the tougher competitions, that difficult elusive style of his that’s prime to counter against Silva’s way of fighting and the fact that Machida still has not been ‘damaged’ as of now. I’m not sure whether Silva can test Machida’s chin (but I do think he can) but I believe that Machida will probably bide his time, engaging with Silva when he wants too, and get in and out of Silva’s range whenever the younger guy wants to trade strikes. Thus by head, I think it’s gonna be another decision win for Machida (he’s the one out of the two that is more making of a statement for the LHW title, whereas with Thiago Silva I think he would still need another fight or two should he emerge victorious before getting a crack at the belt).

So head wise it’s Machida to win by another decision, but my heart picks for a win for Silva.
Nevertheless I’m going to go with Machida, he’s the one who faced the more stellar competitions and had that style of his that’ll make it real difficult for just about anybody in the division to come up with.

My Predicted Victor: Lyoto Machida

***************************************************

Georges St-Pierre vs. BJ Penn


As in the words of Mike Goldberg: “HERE WE GO!”
The rematch is here at last: GSP vs. BJ PENN II, at UFC 94.
All the talk, all the hype, all the build up leading into and as well as considering that both fighters are coming into this clash with plenty of expectations and not forgetting their career record thus far and ALSO the P4P talk as well (since both are among the list!), bloody hell this could be for the ages!

Before proceeding to analyzing the fighters…
As stated above, all the talk, all the hype, all the build up…..the UFC (or Dana White) is really hyping this event and this particular fight so much that it seems like it’s bound to be among the greatest fights in MMA’s history.
It does have the build up (especially since it’s going to be a rematch after a close split decision in the first fight) and not forgetting that both BJ and GSP are among people’s consensus of the top P4P list.
I think we are in for a good fight, but whether or not it can match the hype behind that HW mega clash between Fedor and CroCop?...man I don’t really know.
IMO, I don’t really think so, but what the GSP-Penn 2 fight can match up against is probably the numbers and profit that the UFC made from the second Liddell-Ortiz fight (that had some hype and build up too back in 2006).

What is more important is to see and witness a great clash between two great fighters who are currently on top of their games, division and lives.
Bring It On!!

-- GEORGES ST-PIERRE --
No doubt, GSP has to use his size/fight time weight advantage and his strength/athleticism/power against whatever BJ Penn could offer in terms of the fight’s motion and making sure that the momentum of the duel is in his hands. And based on his last fights, one can be sure that GSP will be utilizing wrestling against BJ (as that is what seems to be the main base that GSP has employed in his fight plans against his previous opponents). I think that we can be sure that should they end up on the ground, GSP will be laying down ground and pound whenever he can muster up (and I think this will definitely happen). Standup wise, we’ll be sure to see the superman punch once in a while when those two are about to exchange (seems to be a ‘signature’ punch of GSP nowadays). I believe that GSP’s fight plan will surely be relentless in pushing the pace of the fight to tire out BJ Penn (and considering that this will be a 5 5-minute rounds fight).
GSP needs to win the standup battle, make the takedowns, and once on the ground, he has to punish Penn as best as he can but at the same time be wary of submission attempts as well as the battle for better body position and control on the ground as that’s one aspect that Penn will be dangerous at.

-- BJ PENN --
For BJ Penn, I believe that part of his gameplan coming into this clash is that he wants to have the upper hand in terms of mental strengths and he wants to break GSP mentally (winning the mind wars). He’s been saying a lot of sh-t talks against GSP, and I think he really wants to unsettle GSP at all cost, and making sure the Canadian’s head is filled with those doubts and negativity (besides his own quest for ‘revenge’).
I reckon for BJ Penn to win, he needs to inflict damage first and constantly make the first damage before GSP can get to some on him, and his chin will need to help up against whatever onslaught that GSP is going to dish on him. Even though he was making the damage standup wise back in their first fight, I don’t think that is going to be the same case this time around (as GSP has improved and had been blasting away at opponents at his own weight class whereas BJ is cleaning out the LW division). The other plan is to frustrate GSP all the time, and catch on a dangerous counter.
If BJ were to win, I don’t think he’ll win on standing up, I think he’ll make a submission when both fighters are on the ground in which I reckon he’ll have to fight from guard (as I believe that GSP will make takedowns attempts and vying to be on top of BJ).

Who’s got more to lose?...
This is one of the debates that had been going on in MMA forums regarding this fight.

Personally, I say GSP has more to lose. It’s his belt that’s on the line here.
Just that a loss for BJ is will hurt BJ in a big way as well (he would then have a 4-4 record on WW class) and of course getting another career loss.

One thing that’s definite here (IMO), whoever wins will make a big statement regarding the MMA P4P status list, and whoever loses will move down the list.

And as for the fight, man, I’m unsure of the eventual outcome.
Being the GSP fan that I am, I want to see him being the winner. I pick GSP for the win in this big fight as I believe he’s the more athletic and bigger fighter he’ll dictate the fight at his own pace and strengths and push BJ Penn as far longer into the further rounds as possible. The pressure will also be on him more than it would be on BJ as it’s his WW belt that is being contested. I predict St-Pierre will get a TKO somewhere halfway midpoint of the fourth round of the fight.
What’s most probable to see is that it would be a very difficult (and cagey) fight for either of St-Pierre or Penn. Just hoping that as fans of MMA, we’ll be seeing a great fight. There’s lots of hype and talk on this fight, so it better come out good. I’m sure lots of people would be damned if it turned out to be a boring fight (!).

My Predicted Victor: Georges St-Pierre

---

---


~ Image source: http://i39.tinypic.com/143031j.gif ~

No comments: